⛅ This Week's Outlook
Spring Creeps In — But Don't Ditch the Jacket Yet
A warming trend pushes highs into the upper 60s by the weekend, but a cold front late Sunday could bring showers and drop us back into the 50s early next week. Cherry blossoms are watching closely.
Deep Dive
March has been a study in contrasts across the DMV. We opened the month with near-record warmth — three consecutive days above 70°F — only to see a late-season Alberta Clipper drag us back below freezing mid-month. That kind of whiplash isn't unusual for the transition season, but it's been sharper than normal this year.
The pattern this week is more encouraging. A ridge building over the Southeast is nosing warm, moist air up the coast, which is why your Thursday morning felt almost balmy compared to last week. Expect that trend to hold through Saturday, with peak temps on the Mall likely reaching 67–68°F.
The wildcard: a cold front currently over the Great Lakes is forecast to sweep through Sunday afternoon. Models disagree on timing (GFS has it earlier, Euro later), which matters for weekend plans. Our best call: keep Saturday plans outdoors, have a backup for Sunday afternoon.
Quick Hits
| 🌊 | Potomac River is running 2.1 ft above normal at Little Falls — minor flood advisory through Friday. |
| 🤧 | Pollen: Tree pollen (cedar, elm) is HIGH. Grass starting to creep up. Allergy sufferers, you've been warned. |
| 🌅 | Golden hour: Sunset Saturday at 7:23 PM — best viewing from the Lincoln Memorial steps facing east for that reflection pool glow. |
| 📊 | By the numbers: 4.2" of rain this month vs. 3.5" average. Year-to-date we're 1.8" above normal. |
📍 DC / Local
National Radar
Thoughts From Us
Thanks for reading — seriously. We started this newsletter because we think the DC area deserves weather coverage that goes deeper than a five-day forecast graphic and a "grab your umbrella!" tweet. The fact that you're here, week after week, tells us we're on the right track.
Something we've been chewing on lately: the gap between how weather models have improved and how that improvement gets communicated to the public. The science is genuinely remarkable — the 5-day forecast today is as accurate as the 3-day forecast was in 2005. But most of us still experience forecasting as "they said it would rain and it didn't," which breeds a kind of casual distrust that the data doesn't support.
We think part of the problem is language. When we say "40% chance of rain," a lot of people hear "they don't really know." But that 40% is a precise, useful number — it means that in 10 similar setups, 4 of them produce rain where you're standing. That's not uncertainty, that's information. We're working on a longer piece about this and we'd love to hear how you interpret probability in forecasts. Hit reply and tell us — we read every one.
— The CW Team · Washington, DC
