On this date in 2013, the National Weather Service, Capital Weather Gang and other media outlets predicted that D.C. would get at least 5 to 10 inches of snow. Schools and the federal government shut down in advance. But only trace amounts to an inch fell inside the Beltway (more fell to the west), and the snow didn’t accumulate on roads.
The storm was named “Snowquester” because it coincided with federal budget cuts, called the sequester, that were triggered when Congress could not reach a deal to reduce the deficit.
The failed forecast — which I described as the worst in Capital Weather Gang’s history — sparked public outrage. And it spurred some serious soul-searching among meteorologists.
“The best forecast for Snowquester was one we could not issue with a straight face, and one most Washingtonians would have ridiculed: Rain, sleet, and/or snow likely — heavy at times — with snow accumulations of 0-14 inches,” I wrote.
The flawed forecast motivated changes to how Capital Weather Gang communicates snowstorm projections. The next year, we introduced the chance of a “boom” (more snow than forecast) or “bust” (less snow than forecast) in every snowfall outlook.
The Washington Post published three articles reflecting on that event, including my own postmortem:
- Snowquester: When forecast information fails (Jason Samenow)
- Snowquester bust: Decision to close schools and offices made before flakes fell (Marc Fisher)
- Snow is the hard stuff for forecasters (Joel Achenbach)
Here are other notables for the day:
- Average high: 53
- Average low: 36
- Record high: 81 (1961)
- Record low: 10 (1888)
- Record precipitation: 1.52 inches (1932)
- Record snowfall: 5.2 inches (1923)
