Snow lovers in the D.C. area often root for El Niño — and it’s easy to see why.
The winter of 2009–2010, a strong El Niño, delivered a record 56.1 inches of snow. A few years later, another El Niño helped produce the “Snowzilla” blizzard of 2016.
But it’s not quite as simple as El Niño equals big snow.
El Niño and La Niña are phases of a broader climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño, waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal. During La Niña, those same waters are cooler than normal. “Neutral” conditions occur when temperatures are near average — though even neutral winters can lean one way or the other, as in 2025–2026, which had some La Niña-like characteristics.
Both phases influence global weather patterns, including here in the Mid-Atlantic. In general, El Niño winters in the D.C. area tend to be somewhat milder overall but feature a more active, moisture-rich storm track. La Niña winters are often cooler but with storms that are less moisture-laden.
Snowfall by winter and ENSO phase
Reliable ENSO records date to about 1950, so that’s the period we focus on here.
Over that time, the snowiest winter on record in D.C., 2009–10, occurred during El Niño. The second snowiest, 1995–96 with 46 inches, came during La Niña.
Beyond that standout La Niña winter, El Niño seasons have generally been more favorable for snow in D.C. Of the 22 snowiest winters since 1950, 13 occurred during El Niño, eight during neutral conditions, and just one during La Niña.
But ENSO phase alone doesn’t tell the whole story. The intensity of El Niño sometimes matters.
Before the blockbuster winter of 2015–16, strong El Niño events were often associated with poor snow seasons locally. That’s partly because they can overwhelm the region with warmth. The two least snowy winters on record, 1972–73 and 1997–98, both occurred during strong to very strong El Niño events, each producing just 0.1 inch of snow.
More recently, the strong El Niño of 2023–24 brought below-average snowfall of about 8 inches in D.C., alongside record global warmth — another reminder that not all El Niños are equal when it comes to snow.
Top 5 snowstorms by phase since 1950
| El Niño | La Niña | Neutral |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5–6, 2010: 17.8″ | Jan 6–8, 1996: 17.1″ | Feb 18–19, 1979: 18.7″ |
| Jan 22–23, 2016: 17.8″ | Dec 16–17, 1973: 10.2″ | Feb 6–7, 1967: 10.3″ |
| Feb 15–18, 2003: 16.7″ | Dec 31, 1970 – Jan 1, 1971: 9.3″ | Dec 11–12, 1960: 8.5″ |
| Feb 10–11, 1983: 16.6″ | Jan 25, 2000: 9.3″ | Feb 3–4, 1961: 8.3″ |
| Dec 18–19, 2009: 16.4″ | Feb 11–12, 2006: 8.8″ | Mar 2–3, 1960: 7.9″ |
Within each ENSO phase, the size of biggest snowstorms can vary. They're most uniform for El Niños and vary most during La Niñas.
During the very strong El Niño of 2015–16, the blockbuster "Snowzilla" blizzard dropped 17.8 inches — tied for the fourth-largest snowfall on record. Much of that winter’s snow came from that single event.
That total matches the Feb. 5–6, 2010 “Snowmageddon” storm, which occurred during a moderate El Niño — a setup that often strikes a better balance between moisture and cold. That winter ultimately finished colder than average, aided by persistent high pressure near Greenland that helped funnel Arctic air south.
Another major El Niño storm came Dec. 18–19, 2009, producing 16.4 inches. And in February 2003, the “Presidents Day II” storm dropped 16.7 inches, also during a moderate El Niño.
La Niña has produced its share of big storms, led by the January 1996 blizzard, which brought 17.1 inches during a moderate event. But beyond that, La Niña’s top storms since 1950 are generally smaller, ranging from about 9 to 10 inches.
Neutral conditions are arguably the second most favorable for big snow in the region. The top event in that category is the third-largest storm on record — the Feb. 18–19, 1979 “Presidents Day I” storm, which delivered 18.7 inches. Other top neutral-season storms range from about 8 to 10 inches.
Number of snow events by season and phase
Since 1950, D.C. has averaged 6.7 snow events per winter. In that time there have been 28 El Niños, 25 La Niñas, and 23 neutral winters.
Neutral winters have averaged the most snow events at 7.8 per season. El Niño averages 6.3 events per winter and La Niña averages 6.1 events per winter.
These kinds of numbers reinforce that El Niño likes to produce larger than average snowstorms when they occur. It packs an extra punch on fewer than normal snow days.
Average snowfall by month and phase, 1950-2026
Looking at how snowfall varies by month across the different phases, El Niño’s influence — especially in midwinter — stands out.
November snowfall is increasingly rare as the edges of winter warm, but El Niño still leads that month, along with January and February. Neutral conditions lead in December and March, while La Niña does not lead in any month.
That pattern broadly aligns with expectations. El Niño winters tend to run warmer, which can work against snowfall in the shoulder months like December and March, when temperatures are marginal for supporting snow. But in the heart of winter, when the cold air supply is more reliable, the added moisture associated with El Niño can translate into bigger snow events.
Average length of the snow season by phase
If we examine the length of the snow season, based on the number of days between the first and last accumulating snowfall, we see that its duration varies depending on the ENSO phase. El Niños tend to have the shortest snow season and neutral winters the longest.
But as El Niño winters average the most snowfall overall, this shows how they can pack a lot into a short window.
The winter of 2009–10 is a prime example. It had the shortest span on record from first to last freeze. But yet, it produced 56.1 inches of snow, much of it from just a few major storms.
La Niña winters tend to run longer, likely reflecting their generally colder nature. Neutral winters stretch things out even more, producing the longest snow season of the three phases.
